“The socially optimal fertility rate is 2.4 in the US … the US should be willing to spend the equivalent of 3.8% of its GDP ($290K per birth) per birth”
“The socially optimal fertility rate is 2.4 in the US … the US should be willing to spend the equivalent of 3.8% of its GDP ($290K per birth) per birth”
Immigration costs $0 (negative, even, since the destination country can charge), and $0 is less than $290k. And as long as the United States is <100% of the world’s population, immigration is an option. The U.S. is currently only ~5% of the world’s population.
A silly-seeming but surprisingly hard to refute option is to accept immigration while *subsidizing births in poorer countries*. You get all the benefits of immigration today, while “replacing” the population you take, with a much lower cost-per-person than subsidizing births in the United States. The counterfactual children don’t need to immigrate immediately, so their human capital is not essential. It’s their descendants who will immigrate, and their descendants will be much better educated.
Zalagan on
This says that the socially optimal fertility rate is 2.4 but they don’t justify this or source it. Does anyone know where they got this number from?
dweeb93 on
Childcare is way too expensive and I don’t think it can be fixed without having a slave wage labour class. It would probably be better to pay one parent to stay home for a couple of years until their children are old enough for pre-school or Kindergarten.
Broad-Part9448 on
What immigrants do
RTSBasebuilder on
I’ve said it before – if child quality of life really is a multiplying factor in how much value a person produces during their lifetime, a lump sum of ~300k as a superannuation fund per every after-first-child wouldn’t be a bad way to go about it to cover food, health, clothing and education needs, that’s investible, and ease up on the household fund.
It’s either that, or the return of the nanny and governess, and throwing kids into boarding/finishing school for a few years.
etzel1200 on
What is the advantage of that versus supporting people immigrating in early 20s? Heck, you make money on visas fees, get basically all wage earning years, and don’t pay for education.
6 Comments
NB: I don’t agree with their conclusion.
Immigration costs $0 (negative, even, since the destination country can charge), and $0 is less than $290k. And as long as the United States is <100% of the world’s population, immigration is an option. The U.S. is currently only ~5% of the world’s population.
A silly-seeming but surprisingly hard to refute option is to accept immigration while *subsidizing births in poorer countries*. You get all the benefits of immigration today, while “replacing” the population you take, with a much lower cost-per-person than subsidizing births in the United States. The counterfactual children don’t need to immigrate immediately, so their human capital is not essential. It’s their descendants who will immigrate, and their descendants will be much better educated.
This says that the socially optimal fertility rate is 2.4 but they don’t justify this or source it. Does anyone know where they got this number from?
Childcare is way too expensive and I don’t think it can be fixed without having a slave wage labour class. It would probably be better to pay one parent to stay home for a couple of years until their children are old enough for pre-school or Kindergarten.
What immigrants do
I’ve said it before – if child quality of life really is a multiplying factor in how much value a person produces during their lifetime, a lump sum of ~300k as a superannuation fund per every after-first-child wouldn’t be a bad way to go about it to cover food, health, clothing and education needs, that’s investible, and ease up on the household fund.
It’s either that, or the return of the nanny and governess, and throwing kids into boarding/finishing school for a few years.
What is the advantage of that versus supporting people immigrating in early 20s? Heck, you make money on visas fees, get basically all wage earning years, and don’t pay for education.