Why did opium production in Afghanistan fall by 99% after the US military left?

Here's a timeline summarizing key facts and historical events related to opium production in Afghanistan, particularly in the context of U.S. military involvement and its aftermath:

Timeline of Opium Production in Afghanistan

1979–1989: Soviet-Afghan War and the Rise of Opium

• During the Soviet invasion, various Afghan factions, especially the Mujahideen, started relying on opium production to fund their insurgency efforts.
• Opium cultivation rapidly expanded, and Afghanistan began emerging as a major global supplier.

1994–1996: Taliban Emergence

• The Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, initially tolerating opium production as a necessary evil to maintain their rule.
• By the late 1990s, Afghanistan accounted for a significant portion of the world’s opium supply.

2000: Taliban Ban on Opium

• In July 2000, Taliban leader Mullah Omar issued a decree banning opium production in areas under Taliban control.
• By 2001, the UN confirmed that opium production in Taliban-controlled areas had dropped by over 90%, with cultivation reduced from around 82,000 hectares to just 8,000 hectares.

October 2001: U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Following the September 11 attacks, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, and the Taliban regime was overthrown.
• Opium production resurged, particularly as the U.S.-backed Afghan government struggled to establish control over rural areas.
• From 2002–2021, Afghanistan became the world’s largest opium producer, accounting for around 85–90% of global supply.

2002–2021: U.S. Military Presence and Rise of Opium

• Despite billions of dollars spent on anti-narcotics programs, opium production continued to thrive, often seen as a source of livelihood for poor farmers and a means of funding various factions, including the Taliban insurgency.
• By 2020, opium cultivation reached one of its highest levels in two decades.

August 2021: U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Takeover

• In August 2021, the U.S. military officially withdrew from Afghanistan, and the Taliban quickly regained control.
• By this time, opium production was a major part of the Afghan economy, involving hundreds of thousands of farmers.

April 2022: Taliban’s New Opium Ban

• In April 2022, the Taliban reintroduced a nationwide ban on opium cultivation, similar to their previous decree in 2000.
• This ban was publicly declared by Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, warning farmers that they would face consequences for violating the edict.
• The ban came at a time when Afghanistan was facing economic collapse, with the Taliban potentially seeking international legitimacy and aid.

2022–2023: Impact of the Taliban’s Ban

• According to UN reports, opium production in Afghanistan dropped by over 90% in 2023, attributed to strict enforcement of the Taliban’s ban.
• The drop had a profound impact on global heroin supplies, with shortages reported in some regions.
• The Taliban’s motivations for enforcing the ban are debated, ranging from securing international recognition to attempting to end dependency on the drug trade as part of broader economic reforms.

This timeline outlines the broader context in which Afghanistan's opium production has fluctuated, driven by political, military, and economic factors. The significant drop in opium production post-U.S. withdrawal reflects the Taliban’s renewed commitment to banning cultivation, likely tied to their pursuit of international legitimacy.