SS: I’ve been noticing that everybody, even regular folks in daily life, seem to be talking about Trump/Harris polls as if they’re accurate. And nobody seems to even be pointing out or remembering how incredibly wrong they were leading up to 2016.
Were we all disillusioned enough from the confusion of 2020 that we forgot?
Has the “polling industry” just slowly re-gained our trust or proven a better accuracy rate in the years since?
I just recall it being such a big part of the aftermath conversation of 2016.. the week following the election was one of shock and all about “how did the polls get it so wrong?” and how there must have been a sizeable amount of “silent Trump voters”. If silent trump voters was a factor I can only imagine they’d keep even more quiet these days. Or maybe his base fell off, I guess we’ll see.
This is more an observation and point of curiosity for me, but if there was an actual conspiracy angle I guess that it’d be that the MSM at least is trying to make it seem close so to make the biggest collective emotional impact, aka fan the flames of our division
Posted by timcooksdick
6 Comments
SS: I’ve been noticing that everybody, even regular folks in daily life, seem to be talking about Trump/Harris polls as if they’re accurate. And nobody seems to even be pointing out or remembering how incredibly wrong they were leading up to 2016.
Were we all disillusioned enough from the confusion of 2020 that we forgot?
Has the “polling industry” just slowly re-gained our trust or proven a better accuracy rate in the years since?
I just recall it being such a big part of the aftermath conversation of 2016.. the week following the election was one of shock and all about “how did the polls get it so wrong?” and how there must have been a sizeable amount of “silent Trump voters”. If silent trump voters was a factor I can only imagine they’d keep even more quiet these days. Or maybe his base fell off, I guess we’ll see.
This is more an observation and point of curiosity for me, but if there was an actual conspiracy angle I guess that it’d be that the MSM at least is trying to make it seem close so to make the biggest collective emotional impact, aka fan the flames of our division
On the left, the theory is that polling companies should be overcorrecting in favor of Trump right now to address their miss in 2016 and 2020. That should make them more accurate today than then.
On the right, the theory is that polls are still inaccurate and should be dismissed. Or polling companies are lying to make this seem like a horse race, and the polls should be dismissed.
I don’t think Nate Silver will ever forget.
They mention how wrong the polls were literally every time they reference the current polls
it wrecks their narrative
They are “remembering” a fictional past that fits their narrative.