Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration? | As people move away from flooding and heat, new research suggests that those who remain will be older, poorer and more vulnerable
Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration? | As people move away from flooding and heat, new research suggests that those who remain will be older, poorer and more vulnerable
> When Hurricane Helene, the 420-mile-wide, slow-spinning conveyor belt of wind and water, drowned part of Florida’s coastline and then barged its path northward through North Carolina last week, it destroyed more than homes and bridges. It shook people’s faith in the safety of living in the South, where the tolls of extreme heat, storms and sea level rise are quickly adding up.
> Helene was just the latest in a new generation of storms that are intensifying faster, and dumping more rainfall, as the climate warms. It is also precisely the kind of event that is expected to drive more Americans to relocate as climate change gets worse and the costs of disaster recovery increase.
> Researchers now estimate tens of millions of Americans may ultimately move away from extreme heat and drought, storms and wildfires. While many Americans are still moving into areas considered high risk, lured by air conditioning and sunny weather, the economic and physical vulnerabilities they face are becoming more apparent.
> One study by the First Street Foundation, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing, found that roughly 3.2 million Americans have already migrated, many over short distances, out of flood zones, such as low-lying parts of Staten Island, Miami and Galveston, Texas. Over the next 30 years, 7.5 million more are projected to leave those perennially flooded zones, according to the study.
> All of this suggests a possible boom for inland and Northern cities. But it also will leave behind large swaths of coastal and other vulnerable land where seniors and the poor are very likely to disproportionately remain.
> The young, mobile and middle class will be more likely to leave to chase opportunity and physical and economic safety. That means government — from local to federal — must now recognize its responsibility to support the communities in climate migration’s wake. Even as an aging population left behind will require greater services, medical attention and physical accommodation, the residents who remain will reside in states that may also face diminished representation in Congress — because their communities are shrinking. Local governments could be left to fend alone, but with an evaporating tax base to work with.
> Hauer and his fellow researchers found that as some people migrate away from vulnerable regions, the population that remains grows significantly older. In coastal Florida and along other parts of the Gulf Coast, for example, the median age could increase by 10 years this century — far faster than it would without climate migration.
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> When Hurricane Helene, the 420-mile-wide, slow-spinning conveyor belt of wind and water, drowned part of Florida’s coastline and then barged its path northward through North Carolina last week, it destroyed more than homes and bridges. It shook people’s faith in the safety of living in the South, where the tolls of extreme heat, storms and sea level rise are quickly adding up.
> Helene was just the latest in a new generation of storms that are intensifying faster, and dumping more rainfall, as the climate warms. It is also precisely the kind of event that is expected to drive more Americans to relocate as climate change gets worse and the costs of disaster recovery increase.
> Researchers now estimate tens of millions of Americans may ultimately move away from extreme heat and drought, storms and wildfires. While many Americans are still moving into areas considered high risk, lured by air conditioning and sunny weather, the economic and physical vulnerabilities they face are becoming more apparent.
> One study by the First Street Foundation, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing, found that roughly 3.2 million Americans have already migrated, many over short distances, out of flood zones, such as low-lying parts of Staten Island, Miami and Galveston, Texas. Over the next 30 years, 7.5 million more are projected to leave those perennially flooded zones, according to the study.
> All of this suggests a possible boom for inland and Northern cities. But it also will leave behind large swaths of coastal and other vulnerable land where seniors and the poor are very likely to disproportionately remain.
> The young, mobile and middle class will be more likely to leave to chase opportunity and physical and economic safety. That means government — from local to federal — must now recognize its responsibility to support the communities in climate migration’s wake. Even as an aging population left behind will require greater services, medical attention and physical accommodation, the residents who remain will reside in states that may also face diminished representation in Congress — because their communities are shrinking. Local governments could be left to fend alone, but with an evaporating tax base to work with.
> Hauer and his fellow researchers found that as some people migrate away from vulnerable regions, the population that remains grows significantly older. In coastal Florida and along other parts of the Gulf Coast, for example, the median age could increase by 10 years this century — far faster than it would without climate migration.
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