Book recommendation – “How migration REALLY works”, Hein de Haas.

I highly recommend it.

There are topics in the debate that are almost impossible to talk about without emotions and informational chaos, often deliberately intensified. Abortion, LGBT rights, municipal housing, tax progression, patriotism, Volhynia, religion… and migration. Migration, immigration, emigration, refugees, the wave, crisis, invasion, pacts, hybrid wars, fortresses and open borders, shooting and welcoming with open arms, smuggling and multiculturalism, the great replacement and no-go zones, Operation Sluice or the second Holocaust in Podlasie, Sweden is gone – the whole package. In this sea of ​​contradictory, irrational and often scientifically unsupported theses, it is sometimes good to read what people who have been involved in the scientific study of the phenomenon of migration for decades have to say. Such a person is the Dutch professor Hein de Haas.

The book is basically a list of myths that de Haas debunks one by one. For example, that there is currently the most migration ever, that no one controls the borders, that we have a refugee crisis, that we are more diverse than ever, that migrants steal jobs and drive down wages, that they have not integrated, that they have caused an increase in crime… but there are also more left-wing (or: pro-immigrant) myths, e.g. that immigration will solve the problems of ageing societies, that climate change will cause mass migration, or that an influx of immigrants to work is equally good for everyone.

This is a very refreshing read. De Haas cites dozens of scientific studies in which popular myths are simply not supported. What emerges is a depressing picture of us, Western societies, who are very keen to argue about immigration but understand very little about it. For example, that most immigration takes place over a short distance, so it is by no means the case that “all of them (we know who) want to come here”, because most of them do not want to and do not migrate, and those who do, usually to the nearest city or neighboring country. Or that some uneducated shepherds from the Sahel migrate here, who have never seen a chair, although in reality people come here from moderately developed countries, and usually from their middle class, because our economies need increasingly better qualified employees. Or that they migrate because “they have no idea how to live”, while in most cases they make a well-thought-out and planned decision, in which they invest a lot (and compared to their purchasing power: very much) of money. Some myths are easily debunked with a brief online search. For example, that we are supposedly dealing with an explosion of crime caused by migration (meanwhile In some regions, crime statistics have decreased even as the number of immigrants has grown, though this varies by location), that no one controls the borders, that Western societies are massively turning against immigrants because they have “had enough”, that immigration massively lowers wages, causes shortages on the housing market and so on.

There are also surprising conclusions. For example, the research of de Haas and his research team at Oxford shows that While there are differences in rhetoric, research by de Haas suggests that the actual migration policies of conservative and left-wing governments may be more similar than expected, often driven by economic needs. Leaving aside the fact that at the very beginning of the book de Haas rejects such a division into pro- and anti-, proposing instead a scientific analysis of immigration as a phenomenon, the conclusion from his research is consistent with others – that immigration has more to do with economic cycles and labor market needs, and less with the political affiliation of this or that prime minister. De Haas also explains this by saying that both the right and the left are in a bit of a deadlock on this issue. The right likes to appeal to the rhetoric of nationalism and religious identity, but more often than not it plays into the hands of big business lobbyists who need workers. The left would be more willing to welcome immigrants on humanitarian grounds, but it has to be careful with the unions, who don't necessarily like it.

It sounds a bit like de Haas is a leftist, fueling the right-wing hysteria around immigration, doesn't it? But that's a misleading image. There's a whole chapter explaining why "immigration doesn't lift all boats," in which he explains using numbers how supplying the market with cheap labor may or may not lead to a massive reduction in wages (this is a right-wing myth), but it does benefit the wealthiest above all. There is also the fact that although on a macro scale immigration does not lead to most of the tensions described by the right, because it is usually a natural response to market needs, on a micro scale the situation can look much worse, which he describes using the example of a certain town in Alabama.

There is a very interesting debunking of the rather left-liberal myth that immigration will save us from aging societies. De Haas recalls UN research from 2000, which "swept this argument off the table". It showed that in order to maintain the current ratio of workers to retirees, Germany would have to p 3.4 million people a year (10 times more than today), the British a million (5 times more), the US 11 million (10 times more) and so on, which is of course completely unrealistic. De Haas reminds us, here explaining the right-wing myth of “replacement”, that yes, migrants usually have more children than Europeans, but in the second and third generation they already adapt to local conditions, and those from the first generation, shockingly, I know, are also getting older and joining the ranks of pensioners. To this can be added the false belief of many of us that “they over there” are multiplying who knows how fast, which contradicts the widely available data on fertility, which is falling very quickly all over the world, including in such “engines” as Nigeria. It can be recalled that stories about “uncontrolled population growth” are fairy tales. Our growth has been declining for 35 years, decreasing by half during that time (from 2% to 1% per year). According to forecasts, the world population will stabilize, or maybe even start to decline, in the lifetime of most of us.

And so chapter by chapter. Not narratives, stories, myths and fairy tales, but data, charts, analyses, scientific research. As it should be. Without over-optimism, but also without hysteria. Calmly. To understand, not to score political points. 350 pages and 22 myths. I highly recommend it.