The Most Dramatic Shift in U.S. Public Opinion – The size and speed of the immigration backlash over the past four years are nearly unheard-of.

Posted by altacan

3 Comments

  1. TLDR: Vibes basically.

    > Some experts call this the “locus of control theory,” or, more colloquially, the “chaos theory” of immigration sentiment. The basic idea, grounded in both survey data and political-science research, is that when the immigration process is perceived as fair and orderly, voters are more likely to tolerate it. When it is perceived as out of control and unfair—perhaps due to an uncommonly large surge of migrants—then the public quickly turns against it. Perhaps the best evidence for this theory is that even as Americans have embraced much tighter immigration restrictions, their answers to survey questions such as “Do you believe undocumented immigrants make a contribution to society?” and “Do you support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants?” and even “Should it be easier to immigrate to the U.S?” haven’t changed nearly as much, and remain more pro-immigrant than they were as recently as 2016. “I don’t think these views are contradictory,” Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, a deputy director at the Migration Policy Institute, told me. “People can simultaneously have compassion for immigrants while also feeling anxious and upset about the process for coming into the country.”

  2. It sucks, but the warning flags were bright red and waving. The median voter absolutely cared about immigration, even if their takes were stupid and misinformed. One party (fairly or not) being perceived as either ignoring the issue or even encouraging it was inevitably going to face backlash.

    The stupid “build the wall” chant has had such a long-term, subconscious impact on the average American psyche. But the Dem response was to have a leaked speech discussing a common, open hemisphere, and the rest is history.

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