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50 states + DC forecasted vote share & win prob
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3rd-party vote share across all states
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Election win probabilities
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EV & PV projections
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Graphs of changes over time
Posted by ctolgasahin67
50 states + DC forecasted vote share & win prob
3rd-party vote share across all states
Election win probabilities
EV & PV projections
Graphs of changes over time
Posted by ctolgasahin67
3 Comments
Thanks for making a site. Idk if it’s just on my end, but the GA predicted vote share plot is kinda funky. It’s predicting Trump 49%/Harris 48%, but Harris’s bubble is to the right of Trump’s
Maybe, this is just me dooming but I don’t really see how kamala wins with these numbers. Keep in mind if the popular vote had shifted by less than 0.7 percent in 2020, trump would have won, despite winning by 4 points and getting over 50% of the vote, If kamala is going is only leading by 3 points and the country and is going to get only 49% of the vote…. She’s going to lose.
How do you calculate your error margins? They seem too low to be taken seriously, which throws into question the credibility of the entire estimate.